Richard Carrier does a novel thing when he discusses the difficulties of knowing who lived and what they did in ancient times. There is a lot of information about some things and virtually none about others.
When it comes to Jesus, there is virtually nothing. Carrier explains why, in these circumstances where there is little or no written material, odds are small we can know much about people in events.
Almost every scrap of information we have about Jesus of Nazareth comes from the Bible. There is information about other things going on at the time so that can be of help.
The Bible portrays Jesus in different ways. He seems like an entirely different person from one writer to the next. In one version of the cross story, he is distraught. In another he is cool, calm and collected.
Then, there is his origin as a god. He is portrayed as being a god before he was born, when he was born and after he came back to life.
Let’s assume there were ten versions of Jesus. This would make the odds of picking the real one at one in ten. Nine out of ten times you would have picked a Jesus that never existed.
Then, there were the things he said and did. If the odds of picking the correct Jesus are only one in ten, what are the odds someone might know what he actually said? The odds of being wrong skyrocket.
Statistically, there is little chance of being correct, although it’s not impossible.